Insurgent brands, the rise—and struggles—of Gen Alpha, and the brand moves of the week

Issue #46

Weekly Exhale

This week, Bain & Co. coined the term insurgent brands, which caught my eye. Usually, I don't go in for management consultant buzzwords, but their analysis of consumer growth in 2024 was startling: Independent consumer brands are responsible for 39% of incremental category growth while holding just 2% market share. An insurgent, by Bain's definition, generates over $25 million in annual revenue, grows at 10x the rate of its category and is driven by a rebellious founder mentality.

The trend is real. Reuters reports that Hellmann's has lost market share to Duke, an independent rival. Insurgents are not only meeting needs in new and authentic ways but also undercutting on price—a 30-ounce jar of Duke's sells for under $5 compared to Hellmann's $6.49.

It's great that the venture capital-fuelled DTC flameouts of the last decade are finally in the rearview mirror. Insurgents, Bain confirms, partner with retailers to bring fresh audiences to old aisles; they focus on simple, premium products and test relentlessly. The $25m revenue marker signals that founders can scale alone, but Bain also gives credit to insurgents that have grown at pace by being acquired in the last two years—brands that proved their model rather than just selling out.

Insurgents matter. They are a warm equator between the extremes of startups and conglomerates, giving next-generation founders a shot, creating jobs, and growing the economy. 120 insurgents in total is a small data set. There's no reason to spray champagne all over the startup community just yet, but there's something there.

If only we could say the same for Britain's young people

David Blunkett and my friend Stephen Greene penned an article this week calling out the latest ONS labour figures as a scandal we can't ignore. The on-ramps to work, to security, to success—they've been iced over. The number of NEETS (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) has climbed by 100,000. That's a million young people with no jobs, no prospects, no hope.

It strikes me that's a problem for insurgency as Bain calls it. Growth comes from fresh eyes—people creating what they wish existed and marketing it better because they are the next generation of buyers.

A story that found me

In the late '90s, two teenagers, Brian Johnson and Brian Morden, grew up in small-town Pennsylvania and bonded through their love of video games and music. When Morden was diagnosed with Ewing's Sarcoma at just 16 years old, the Make-A-Wish Foundation granted him a wish.

Now, you don't write your wish. You draw it. (Sadly, a lot of kids in the program aren't old enough to write yet.)

Morden sketched a picture of himself, his family, and his best friend, Johnson, visiting Bungie, the games studio behind the smash hit game Halo. This was a dream they never could have imagined. Bungie had just been acquired by Microsoft, and a studio visit had never been granted before. But they said yes.

A limo picks up Morden, his family and Johnson, taking them to the secretive Bungie campus. They hang out with the developers. They play demos. They end up in a studio recording Moden's voice. His laughter. His battle cries. His presence. And when Halo launched, Brian Morden was in it. A line of dialogue, buried in the chaos of battle, spoken by one of the Marines.

Some months later, Morden went into remission.

He threw a Halo gaming party in the basement of his local church with food from his favourite Italian restaurant. When the game hit the cutscene, his friends erupted into cheers.

Remission didn't last.

At the tender age of 18, Morden was back home on a gurney in his front room. Johnson grabbed his best friend's hand and told him it would be ok. Then Bungie called. They told Morden they were going to immortalise him. His voice would remain in every single Halo game.

That night, Morden passed away, his family holding him close. And Bungie kept its promise. Through every sequel, remake, and new game, Mordon's voice has stayed. His family even receives royalty payments towards the cancer foundation set up in his name.

The story didn't end there

Decades later, Johnson was struggling to pursue his lifelong ambition to get into the gaming industry, but continuing to carry his lost best friend's spirit of endeavour. After setbacks and rejections, Johnson finally broke through—first as a sound design apprentice, then as a game audio specialist, and eventually as the Principal Sound Designer at Blizzard.

He is now inside the Mircosoft ecosystem that once welcomed him and Morden as kids. Now, he gives the tours. Now, he helps young talent find their North Star. Because that's how it works. One generation lifts the next.

Brian Morden's voice line in Halo was: "The Autumn, she's been hit."

And I picture a drop-ship, filled with a million young people, going down.

But I also picture Blunkett, Greene, Microsoft, Bungie, Morden and Johnson—proof that ideas are out there and things can connect. Maybe that's where we start.

Let's rise together with every issue. ♡

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Market Movements

UK house prices fall unexpectedly | The Guardian

Euro poised for best week since 2009 | Reuters

Trump expands exemptions from Canada and Mexico | BBC

Our workless young: a scandal we can't ignore | Financial Times

Brand Beat

Havas appoints Tamara Greene as CCO | Little Black Book

Insurgent brands steal the spotlight in 2025 | Bain & Co

Obesity meds present CPG brands with an existential threat | The Drum

Kraft Heinz enters the alcohol space for the first time | Food Dive

Shoppers turn to smaller food brands, cutting into Unilever and P&G | Reuters

McDonald's ad shares the go-to breakfast orders of Oscars celebs | Adweek

Sainsbury's keeps lid on inflation to come in as cheapest supermarket | The Grocer

How brands keep customers loyal in a polarised world | Business of Fashion

Are fan frenzies outside of fashion shows good business or a nuisance? | Vogue Business

UK B Corp community becomes the largest globally | Maddyness

The glaring problem with Pretty Little Thing's rebrand | Independent

The Gen Alpha playbook | The Kite Factory

How brands are referencing tariffs in their ads | AdAge

I want to be anti-Stephen Bartlett: social media's svengali | The Drum

Absolute best International Women's Day campaigns | Marketing/ Beat

Women's US Soccer league signs Alex Cooper | Wall Street Journal

Netflix stocks slide amid slowing subscriber growth | Variety

System1's ad of the week is for Publix | System1

Volvo's strange new ad is proof that it's time to hit pause on AI commercials | Fast Company

The rise of the TikTok Oracle | Thinking Out Loud

Trending: Raazi Tea delivers freshly brewed organic teas | Thingstesting

Starting Up

Our Legacy—the stealth brand you need to know | Financial Times

Olive oil brand Citizens of Soil raises £1.8m to push growth | The Grocer

Why VCs ghost founders | TechCrunch

A team of female founders is launching a cloud security tech | Wired

What should founders do after they exit? | Sifted

Tech Tidbits

Trump's crypto project netted $350m from memecoin | Financial Times

Elon Musk's internet: So based, much wow. So cringe? | New York Times

How Amazon rebuilt Alexa with generative AI | Amazon

The risk of outsourcing judgement to AI | Big Think

Apple's co-founder Woz says Tesla is "the worst in the world" | Forbes

Can Matchmaking platforms save us from dating app fatigue? | Wired

Venture Vibes

FT100: Europe's fastest growing companies in 2025 | Financial Times

InterTalent launches Project30 Ventures, inspired by Logan Paul | Deadline

Is this a good time to buy shares in Unilever? | The Times

Boots owner Walgreens seals $10 billion private deal with Sycamore | Wall Street Journal

Harnessing the financial power of women | New York Times

Design Driven

Rediscover the MacTable by Apple | Hypebeast

Do you need a personal brand? | Creative Review

Does 3D printing have stock-frame potential? | It's Nice That

Happiness

"The Autumn, she's been hit" - a story of two teenage friends | Twenty Thousand Hertz

Crap jobs, fewer homes, less money. Peak happiness eludes the young | The Guardian

The ultimate German philosophy for a happier life | The Atlantic

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