PepsiCo's $2bn Poppi buy, Nike's turnaround, Tesla protests and why women still face major barriers

Issue #48

Weekly Exhale

A few weeks ago, Olipop spat on Poppi's face with a post that fuelled outrage after Poppi over-gifted a bunch of social media influencers with branded vending machines. So much so that Poppi founder Allison Ellsworth seemed visibly distressed as she took to TikTok to post an apology. But this week, Ellsworth has nothing to apologise for—she just sold Poppi to PepsiCo for nearly $2 billion. Flashy stunts and Super Bowl spots are classic peacockery ahead of a sale, and this time, the fanfare paid off.

Let's be clear: Poppi aped Olipop, a strategy that's familiar to Pepsi, which copied Coca-Cola. But there's no getting around it: Poppi has pulled off a hell of a score (call it $1.6 billion after reported tax breaks). It's also a tidy win for Shark Tank star Rohan Oza, who paid $400,000 for 25% on the show. They're not the only winners. An early cluster of small investors, called The Angel Group, will see an 88x return on their investment. If you were an angel and put $5k into Poppi with The Angel Group, congratulations, you can now buy yourself a ski chalet in Mount Snow or a Lamborghini Aventador in neon puke green.

Prebiotic soda sales are miniature—0.28% of the market. No one wants sodas that have less sugar but taste worse. So why is PepsiCo so pumped to throw money at Poppi?

Brand people love to overstate their role, but yes, Poppi's iconoclastic pack design is cool, and there was some clever repositioning (see above copying Olipop from initially being called "Mothers's Beverage"). Social media fanatics love Poppi's commitment to influencers, even if showing off got them into trouble. Notably, the analysis shows that Gen Z women love Poppi over traditional sodas and Olipop. This may be down to Ellsworth, an influential female founder, who appeared on Shark Tank when she was 9 months pregnant.

Here's another clue: Despite his well-known Diet Coke addiction, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has declared war on sodas as part of his 'Make America Healthy Again' platform, calling them "poison". Coca-Cola launched its own prebiotic soda in February, called Simply Pop.

That's the thing. A brand's value is often more about the pain it removes for the acquirer than the product it sells. Keeping the U.S. Government off your back is an expensive game. Whether the pre-biotic soda category ultimately succeeds is immaterial. Pepsi just bought itself a get-out-of-jail-free card in case the soda market gets regulated or culturally ostracised.

That leaves Olipop in a funny place, which is now overvalued yet unable to take on the conglomerates. Fussing over Poppi's $25k vending machine was lousy juju.

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I was excited to see what Spike Jonze and Pedro Pascal could do for AirPods in Apple's new five-minute brand spot. But it feels like Jonze and Pascal were forced to build the ad around a noise cancellation feature that couldn't make its mind up—a switch that goes on, then off, then on again—robbing the film of its emotional sweep. And while I wanted to fall in love with Pascal's dance moves, it's a far cry from Christopher Walken's surprise jive in that Fatboy Slim video.

Apple's creativity is bold but waning. And there's always a concern when a company goes all-in on advertising. It usually means creativity in the products has dried up. That said, if you're sitting on legacy products people already love—headphones, fried chicken, sneakers, fragrance, then cool ads can make you seem innovative. After all, it's easier to hire Jonze and Pascal than to pile capex into the risky process of producing the next billion-dollar product (and anything less isn't worth bothering with for a company the size of Apple).

Advertising agencies lost their grip when phone screens took over, but brands can still leverage big-moment cultural capital as an alternative to having a breakthrough product. Poppi's success shows that even a mediocre product with smart branding, social media dominance and a Super Bowl ad can score a billion-dollar exit.

And that's some much-needed sunshine for start-up consumer brands.

Despite getting lost, I liked the "walk on the sunny side of the street" invitation that Jonze and Pascal extended to us in their film. I spent a decent chunk of the week in London's sunshine, deliberately crossing to where the sun kissed the pavement, removing my cap to catch a little extra warmth.

There's a lesson in there.

My mother, a fierce entrepreneur and independent shop owner used to say to her team when things got rough, "Come on people—let's get a glow." And hey, people would perk up. Customers would buzz a little more. The tips that day would go up.

Not every founder will get an overvalued exit to a conglomerate or the chance to eye up Vitelli Boetia staircase chandeliers for their mansions when the payout lands. Unlike Olipop and Poppi, karma doesn't always come around. Succeeding requires a thousand external forces lining up in your favour. But you are pursuing something you know to be true in the warm embers of your gut and with the comfort that you're taking action. So the trick is to keep choosing the sunny side of the street. Don't be spitting like Olipop.

And if, like Pascal, you've lost something or someone close to you recently, then I wish you sunshine, too. The feeling of standing on a street corner, with a bit of warmth on your face, making plans to have good friends by your side. Who knows, being kind to someone who needs street directions to feel some respite. Or even dancing awkwardly down the street with a pair of old wired headphones providing the music.

That's what Apple was trying to say.

And for sure, they are some of the few returns we can count on.

Let's rise together with every issue.

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Market Movements

UK borrowing overshoots expectations adding pressure | Financial Times

Bank of England holds interest rates | BBC

Tiny improvement in consumer confidence in March | The Independent

S&P on four week losing streak | CNBC

Brand Beat

PepsiCo buys prebiotic soda brand Poppi for nearly $2 billion | Forbes

Apple's new 5 minute spot by Spike Jonze featuring Pedro Pascal | Variety

Why don't Gen Z men like Poppi? | Unhinged Social

Nike's turnaround has begun | Quartz

McDonald's replaces Starbucks as most valuable restaurant | MarketingWeek

20 ways Nvidia's GTC could reshape marketing | The Drum

Is Topshop coming back? | Glamour

Why escapism is the new marketing currency | Vogue Business

Meet 15 companies that use marketing as cultural | Fast Company

As retail media booms, performance and brand blurs | Digiday

Is Klarna's $15bn valuation worth it? | Sifted

ASOS expects in-line revenue | Wall Street Journal

Why supersized marketing stunts are a thing | Emily Sundberg

Everden wants to be Gen Alpha's Bonne Bell | Fast Company

TikTokkers call for the "chubby filter" to be banned | BBC

The new rock stars of food are a tin of tuna and a jar of beans | The Telegraph

Yeo Valley acquires The Collective Dairy | Food Manufacture

Unilever to sell The Vegetarian Butcher to Vivera | The Grocer

Coca-Cola changes network for $700m media account | The Drum

Inside the controversies of the Snow White remake | New York Times

System1's ad of the week is for Dawn dish soap | System1

Trending: Brightland olive oils and fruit-forward vinegars | Thingtesting

Starting Up

Women UK founders in the UK face discrimination | Sifted

Tech Nation unveils 25 leading climate tech startups | Maddyness

Not a coder? Having an AI idea can be enough | New York Times

How AI agents are helping startups scale | Forbes

Michael Seibel is leaving Y Combinator | TechCrunch

Tech Tidbits

Accenture wants Elon Musk's spending is hitting revenues | Financial Times

Tesla Takedown organises 500 protests worldwide | Fast Company

Inside Google's Two-Year Frenzy to Catch Up with OpenAI | Wired

Sam Altman is investing in a for-profit college | Quartz

Disney's robotic droids steal show at NVIDIA conference | Wall Street Journal

Venture Vibes

What I learned over lunch with Warren Buffet | Big Think

Diageo loosens ties with Distill Ventures | Drinks Intel

Has VC killed more value than it's created? | Sifted

VC investments in Europe surpass $52 billion | TechCrunch

Design Driven

How eBay built a bridge between brand and product | Figma

Most innovative design companies of 2025 | Fast Company

Do design studios need physical spaces? | It's Nice That

Jacquemus designs loungewear for Air France | Perfect Magazine

Happiness

Feeling helpless and hopeless? Here's how to fight it | CNBC

Want a better life? Try these habits | Vox

Britain's rainforests are a place of healing | The Guardian

Stay gold 🙏🏻